Luis de la Fuente’s Spain edged past Portugal thanks to Mikel Merino’s 91st-minute winner, a goal that made the manager look like a tactical genius for his substitutions.
Merino’s provider Ferran Torres also came off the bench, with both players combining at exactly the right moment to seal a narrow victory for La Roja.
Neither Portugal nor Spain has beaten the other by more than a single goal in a competitive match since 1950, a record that perhaps influenced Spain’s cautious approach throughout.
Spain generated 1.78 expected goals across the match, a figure that feels accurate given the number of balls flashed across the Portuguese box that went unclaimed by attackers.
Portugal’s expected goals tally of just 0.58 barely troubled Spain, who have now kept five consecutive clean sheets and allowed opponents a combined 0.78 expected goals across their previous four games.
Dani Olmo showed glimpses of brilliance in the pockets behind the Portuguese midfield, yet Spain repeatedly ignored passes into those same dangerous areas throughout the contest.
Rodri Hernandez was defiant after the final whistle, stating “whoever thinks we’re going to win without suffering is in the wrong,” before adding “we showed maturity” in his post-match assessment.
The absence of Nico Williams looms increasingly large, with Lamine Yamal appearing to carry an enormous burden on the opposite flank without his usual direct partner beside him.
According to Opta, just 36 of Spain’s 531 passes were classified as long, representing 6.8%, a dramatic shift from the 17% recorded during the Euro 2024 final against England.
Mikel Oyarzabal, usually reliable inside the box, appeared deliberately stationed deeper than expected, sitting level with Olmo rather than making runs in behind Portugal’s centre-backs.
An analysis of Opta’s pass map confirms Oyarzabal was deeper than both Lamine Yamal and Alex Baena, suggesting de la Fuente had a specific defensive role planned for the striker.
The most logical explanation is that Oyarzabal was tasked with disrupting Portugal’s counter-attacks rather than hunting chances inside the box, a calculated sacrifice of attacking threat for defensive security.
Should the quarter-finals produce a lineup of favourites, Spain appear on course for a potential meeting with France, a side carrying what many consider the most dangerous attacking arsenal in the competition.
France’s considerable weaponry under Didier Deschamps could make that a daunting prospect, and Spain’s increasingly conservative structure may reflect an awareness of that threat building on the horizon.
Whether de la Fuente is genuinely constructing a game plan with France in mind, or whether Spain simply lack the attacking firepower of their previous incarnations, remains the most intriguing question surrounding this tournament.
